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studenti:mihita_cvitanovic:decision_trees:decision_trees_in_decision_analysis [2012/06/01 10:04] mcvitanovic [Advantages] |
studenti:mihita_cvitanovic:decision_trees:decision_trees_in_decision_analysis [2023/06/19 16:21] (trenutno) |
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| Redak 5: | Redak 5: | ||
| ==== Definition ==== | ==== Definition ==== | ||
| - | A decision making tree is essentially a diagram that represents, in a specially organized way, the decisions, the main external or other events that introduce uncertainty, as well as possible outcomes of all those decisions and events. | + | A decision making tree is essentially a diagram that represents, in a specially organized way, the decisions, the main external or other events that introduce uncertainty, as well as possible outcomes of all those decisions and events [1]. |
| **Components of a decision tree** | **Components of a decision tree** | ||
| - Decision node: a square node; represents decisions you can make | - Decision node: a square node; represents decisions you can make | ||
| - Chance (uncertainty) node: a circle node; shows the occurrence of events over which the decision maker has no direct control | - Chance (uncertainty) node: a circle node; shows the occurrence of events over which the decision maker has no direct control | ||
| - | - Consequences (outcomes: utilities or costs | + | - Consequences (outcomes): utilities or costs |
| {{ :studenti:mihita_cvitanovic:decision-tree.gif?direct&300 |}} | {{ :studenti:mihita_cvitanovic:decision-tree.gif?direct&300 |}} | ||
| Redak 21: | Redak 21: | ||
| ==== Advantages ==== | ==== Advantages ==== | ||
| - | Some of the advantages of using decision trees for decision making and planning are the following: | + | Some of the advantages of using decision trees for decision making and planning are the following [2]: |
| * Clear lay out of the problem so that all options can be challenged | * Clear lay out of the problem so that all options can be challenged | ||
| Redak 28: | Redak 28: | ||
| * Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses | * Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses | ||
| ==== Disadvantages ==== | ==== Disadvantages ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Some of the disadvantaged of using decision tress for decision making and planning are the following [3]: | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Even a small change in input data can at times, cause large changes in the tree | ||
| + | * Decisions contained in the decision tree are based on expectations, and irrational expectations can lead to flaws and errors in the decision tree | ||
| + | * Large decision trees can be unwieldy and complex to us | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===== Applications ===== | ||
| + | |||
| + | Decision tress are used in the field of operational research, a discipline that deals with the application of advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions. Some examples of the fields where it is used: | ||
| + | * business and economics; project management | ||
| + | * health economics | ||
| + | * public health | ||
| + | * law suits | ||
| ===== Tools ===== | ===== Tools ===== | ||
| Redak 55: | Redak 69: | ||
| ===== Bibliography ===== | ===== Bibliography ===== | ||
| + | - [[http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6174886&url=http%3A%2F%2Fieeexplore.ieee.org%2Fiel5%2F6170041%2F6174590%2F06174886.pdf%3Farnumber%3D6174886|T.Rahman. An efficient visual classification based approach to Decision Tree construction]]. Retreived May 25, 2012. | ||
| + | - [[http://www.mindtools.com/dectree.html|Decision Trees: Choosing by projecting "expected outcomes"]]. Retreived May 25, 2012. | ||
| + | - [[http://www.brighthub.com/office/project-management/articles/106005.aspx|N Nayab. Disadvantages to Using Decision Trees]]. Retreived May 26, 2012. | ||
| ===== Read more ===== | ===== Read more ===== | ||
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