Decision Trees in Decision Analysis
About
Definition
A decision making tree is essentially a diagram that represents, in a specially organized way, the decisions, the main external or other events that introduce uncertainty, as well as possible outcomes of all those decisions and events [1].
Components of a decision tree
Decision node: a square node; represents decisions you can make
Chance (uncertainty) node: a circle node; shows the occurrence of events over which the decision maker has no direct control
Consequences (outcomes): utilities or costs
Process of building a decision tree
Interview decision makers and construct a preliminary tree
Present the tree and show how various concerns are caputred
Solicit a list of new concerns
Revise the tree
Advantages
Some of the advantages of using decision trees for decision making and planning are the following [2]:
Clear lay out of the problem so that all options can be challenged
Full analysis of the possible consequences of a decision
Provide a framework to quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them; white box model - If a given result is provided by a model, the explanation for the result is easily replicated by simple math
Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses
Disadvantages
Some of the disadvantaged of using decision tress for decision making and planning are the following [3]:
Even a small change in input data can at times, cause large changes in the tree
Decisions contained in the decision tree are based on expectations, and irrational expectations can lead to flaws and errors in the decision tree
Large decision trees can be unwieldy and complex to us
Applications
Decision tress are used in the field of operational research, a discipline that deals with the application of advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions. Some examples of the fields where it is used:
Decision trees which purpose is to facilitate decision making could easily be drawn manually on a piece of paper. However, it could be more convenient for a user to use computers because it is easy to make changes or to make some computations. Simple text editors and table sheets could serve for that purpose, i.e. MS Word and MS Excel. Additionally, other specialized software was developed to support decision making. Once a user learns how to use the software decision trees are quick and efficient. In fact,visual communication can be six times more effective than communication with words only. Nevertheless, we should always keep in mind that the software is only as good as the user. It is not the program that makes decisions because it is simply following user's instructions, thus a user should learn how to give good instructions.
Here is the list of some specialized decision tress tools:
1. Insight Tree
2. Lumenaut
add-in to MS Excel
provides a range of tools (Monte Carlo simulation software and Decision Tree analysis software) allowing you to build decision tree models from within Excel
allows for different types of sensitivity and statistical analysis
-
3. Vanguard Studio
a standalone program and is described as combining features of artificial intelligence, math applications and spreadsheets
the decision tree software aspect has a nice wizard which takes you step-by-step through creating the whole decision tree
it also offers Monte Carlo simulation, another wizard for forecasting, statistical decision tree analysis and other methods
-
4. SmartDraw
Bibliography
Read more